Comprehensive Immigration Reform, When will it Happen?

In a recent radio address, President George W. Bush, discussed the presence of illegal immigrants in the United States.  President Bush stated about illegal immigrants "as I said in a speech down in Miami, we need to treat these people not with amnesty, and not with animosity."  Yet, the feelings of "animosity" are still present in the public and these feelings of "animosity" are certainly barricading the push toward any sort of "amnesty." 

Indeed, there has been talk about Comprehensive Immigration Reform ("CIR") building over almost the entirety of the W. Bush administration.  George W. Bush began making the issue public as early as 2003.  Despite the notoriety of the issue, the last four years has produced nothing.  Instead, the undocumented worker has been presented with increasing hostility, random prosecution and unfair treatment.  So, when, if ever, will there be any CIR in favor of the undocumented immigrant?

There is, of course, no clear answer.  It appears that CIR has once again stalled on Capitol Hill.  Moreover, as the elections grow closer, there may be even less of a push down this path.  Why would this be?  Simple, there is only one part of immigration reform that is not subject to argument, that it is a divisive issue.  Politicians know that there are strong feelings over the issue.  Moreover, it is complex and difficult to solve.  Does a politician who is coming up for elections push for a guest worker program, for amnesty, for tougher penalties, for monetary penalties or for a more restrictive immigration policy?  Where would employment immigration fall into the picture?  What about increased visas for family members?  What would make potential voters happy about immigration? To a politician it is tough to decide immigration when your position may alter your fate.  Even more worrying will be what would happen to the balance of Democrats versus Republicans should votes be lost because of immigration and all of this worry over people who cannot vote?  Maybe it is just too risky?

The closer we get to national elections, now only eighteen months away, the more of a freeze you may see on the fate of undocumented immigrants in this country. Additionally, the war in Iraq is the most paramount issue to Americans right now.  Without a clear exit strategy or a plan for victory, it may very well be that there are bigger issues that need to be solved.  Congress cannot solve the budgeting issues on the war right now, what would it say to the American public if Congress put undocumented immigrants ahead of U.S. Citizen troops standing in harms way?

It appears that for right now, there will be no quick solution while the war is ongoing.  It appears that the issue with the war may have to be solved first.  The closer that issue gets to election time, the less likely there will be a movement toward CIR.  Therefore, it may well be the case that despite George W. Bush's hopes to get CIR passed this year, there may be no resolution until after the elections when he is out of office.  In that case, we may see no CIR until 2009.  In the mean time, all that is apparent are stricter border security measures, increased random enforcement of immigration laws and the tough stance toward anti-immigration.  It appears that Immigration and Customs Enforcement ("ICE") has put a "freeze" on immigration reform for the time being.

Written by Sanjay S. Mathur
Attorney at Law